The Department for Work and Pensions’ estimate of the impact of the cuts to welfare benefits is much larger than many had expected. By 2030 there will be 3.2 million people who will financially lose an average of £1,720 per year. We know this will hit people with health problems and disabilities the hardest.
Will these cuts help? Reducing the support for the people who need it the most risks prioritising the bottom line over population health. The Office for Budget Responsibility shows welfare spending will remain at the same proportion of the GDP by the end of the decade even factoring in the cuts. We need to see welfare and health policy working much more harmoniously if we are to reduce the pressures on the state.
More than bricks and mortar
A home is far more than just bricks and mortar or a roof over our heads. Good homes support people to stay healthier. Public Health England recognises that precarious housing increases people’s risk of developing both mental and physical health conditions.
By working across government and with the private sector it is possible to create high-quality, well-designed, and sustainable homes that are better for the climate and reduce running costs for the people living in them. Ministers have set a target of building 1.5 million new homes. This has the potential to create new jobs, start to ease the housing crisis and add £6.8bn to the economy by 2029-30.
Before the budget the chancellor also announced £2bn more for more affordable homes. This is not NHS spending but if done right, it will improve health, as well as build houses. Elsewhere the government should look to build on the Renters’ Rights Bill by extending the Decent Home Standard much more widely.
Please raise this tax, chancellor
The chancellor got through the Spring Statement without raising taxes. Just. It is far from clear if she will be able to do this in the autumn. Here’s one the chancellor should look to next time for better health and a better bottom line. Tax unhealthy food. It’s really bad for our kids, and for us. The NHS is spending more and more on treating obesity, £6 billion annually and this is set to rise to over £9.7 billion each year by 2050, and demand for weight loss drugs might cost a fortune.
It is increasingly well understood that the availability and affordability of healthy food affects children and adults’ health. Don’t blame the kids. Make the food system healthy. Don’t let companies profit from making kids ill. The Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) incentivised food companies to make healthier products, without harming sales or profitability. SDIL brought in £338 million in 2023 to 2024.
The government should build on this well evidenced policy, and introduce a salt and sugar levy for all foods. In 2021, The National Food Strategy proposed a sugar and salt reformulation tax. Alongside enormous long-term gains from public health, estimated the tax could generate between £2.9bn–£3.4bn per year for the Treasury. It would not cost the Treasury a penny.
A healthy workforce is a productive workforce
Finally, the chancellor and prime minister have made growth their number one goal. They want growth and productivity to pay for better public services, not more tax or borrowing. But Britain is getting sicker, working less and producing less.
Over 900,000 workers were missing from work due to sickness at the end of 2023. People with multiple health conditions are around twice as likely to take sick days or experience lower productivity due to working through sickness.
Having already adopted some recommendations from our research with Institute for Public Policy Research to create a more productive workforce, ministers must now go further and faster in seeing health beyond sickness but as a top priority to drive economic growth.
Getting more bang for our buck in the months ahead
With the Spring Statement fading into the rear-view mirror, the government now needs to look forward and consider its options. Some of these will require investment and spending. But critically, some won’t. Some are free and some are just good value for money. With smart policies focused on prevention – whether on housing, nutrition, or work – if the chancellor can focus on getting more the bang for the taxpayer buck, this will help her with navigating our changing world and balancing the books.
Laurie Lee is chief executive officer at Guy’s & St Thomas’ Foundation.
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